History of Math Probability Research Paper

History of Math Probability

A Short History of Probability

Dr . Alan M. Polansky

Division of Statistics

Northern Illinois UniversityHistory of Probability 2

France Society in the 1650's

! Wagering was popular

and fashionable

! Not limited by law

! Because the games became

more complicated and

the stakes became

bigger there was a

dependence on mathematical

methods for computer

chances. History of Possibility 3

Enter the Mathematicians

! A well-known gambler,

the brave De Simply

consulted Blaise Pascal

in Paris about a several

concerns about several

game titles of opportunity.

! Pascal started to

match with his

friend Caillou Fermat

about these challenges. History of Likelihood 4

Traditional Probability

! The correspondence between Pascal and Fermat

is a origin of the mathematical study of


! The technique they designed is now referred to as the

classical way of computing probabilities.

! The method: Presume a game features

in equally

likely final results, of which

m results

correspond to winning. Then your probability of

earning is m/n. History of Possibility 5

Issues with the Traditional Method

! The classical method requires a game

to be broken down in to equally most likely


! It is not often possible to achieve this.

! It is not usually clear once possibilities will be

similarly likely. History of Probability six


! One other method, known as the frequency

method experienced also been employed for some time.

! This method includes repeating a casino game a

large number of instances under the same

circumstances. The likelihood of successful is then

approximately equal to the portion of is the winner

in the repeats.

! This method utilized by Pascal and Fermat

to verify results received by the classical

technique. History of Probability 7

Early Generalizations

! James Bernoulli

demonstrated that the

frequency method

and the time-honored

technique are

consistent with a single

one other in his publication

Ars Conjectandi in

1713. History of Possibility 8

Early Generalizations